Previously, high voter turnouts were often associated with anti-incumbency sentiment but with state governments in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Orissa and Haryana managing to return to power in recent years, conventional wisdom has been revised. The clash in Punjab is between Akali patriarch Parkash Singh Badal and Congress's Amarinder Singh while in Uttarakhand, chief minister B C Khanduri hopes to pull off an upset win over Congress which has not projected a leader. The long lines at polling booths also seem to indicate that despite anti-politician movements like Team Anna's Lokpal stir that seeks to run down the authority of elected legislatures, grassroots democracy is alive and kicking. Lokpal and corruption are poll issues, but there is no cynicism about the political process. Good weather belied fears of low voter turnout in Uttarakhand and in both states polling was largely incident free. With elections to Manipur concluded on January 28, polling will end in UP on February 28 while Goa will have a one-day poll on March 3. Votes to all five elections will be counted on March 4. Monday's enthusiastic polling did not provide many clues to voter behaviour. Congress hoped incumbency factors combined with local graft and nepotism would help it trounce the Akali-BJP combine in Punjab and BJP in Uttarakhand. BJP has sought to dodge the barbs by dragging scams dogging the UPA at the Centre into the poll discourse. BJP hopes a negative mood against Congress as indicated by opinion polls will help its cause. Congress is seen to have an edge in Punjab while the odds seem evenly balanced in Uttarakhand where BJP is banking on Khanduri, a former general, to marshal its fortunes after projecting the leader as "Mr Clean". Both parties have a rebel problem and many observers feel the elections are too close to call. The big battle, billed as the clash of titans, is in UP where campaigning is gathering momentum with the first of a seven-phase election getting underway on February 4. The stakes are high for Congress, BJP, BSP and SP as the polls could not only decide who rules UP, but can impact the Centre too. Congress is hoping that a decent result will lead to an alliance with SP at the state and Centre, providing much-needed insurance in Lok Sabha against demanding and mercurial allies like the Trinamool Congress. If Congress does not do well, it may well look even more vulnerable than it has in the past year. All three members of the Gandhi family - Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka - are expected to be in UP over the next week. Sonia is to address rallies in Gonda and Deoria while Priyanka is expected to camp at Amethi-Rae Bareli from February 2 to 9 as Rahul continues to criss-cross the state. If Congress's first family is taking no chances in an election seen as a test of Rahul Gandhi's leadership skills, BJP is doing all it can to check its rival by aggressively canvassing upper caste-OBC support - a strategy that hinges on attacking Congress's promise for a minority sub-quota within 27% backward caste reservation. BJP and Congress are seen to be competing for the "third slot" and the intensity of the fight can only indicate how fierce the rivalry between main contenders BSP and SP is. Chief minister Mayawati and SP boss Mulayam Singh Yadav have promised all manner of sops for all sections even as they woo minorities in particular apart from their respective vote banks. The poll winds are blowing hard and the electoral cauldron is churning, but it is not easy to discern who could be the winner apart from SP being seen to be in the lead. While projections for SP vary between 140 to 170 seats in a House of 403, the party will be well short of majority. BJP optimists feel the party can give BSP a run for the second slot while Congress strategists are hoping the 22 Lok Sabha seats the party won in 2009 is no flash in the pan. There is also the possibility that the elections may yield no viable combination in case Congress and SP don't make up the numbers and BJP refuses to ally with BSP. In such a situation, UP will be headed for president's rule - a deadlock that in the past has been broken by mass defections.
Goa is a small state, but elections are being fought hard with no quarters given with Congress's Digambar Kamat looking to hold on to power. Congress is hopeful of a victory with its main challenger BJP weakened by infighting. BJP leader and former chief minister Manohar Parrikar has lost some sheen after it was felt that he let off the Kamat government over illegal mining scams in the state.