NEW DELHI: Election Commission on Saturday announced the dates for the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, setting the stage for a mini-general election which will mark a serious political test for Rahul Gandhi and may potentially provide a window of opportunity to Congress to reverse a pervasive perception of corruption and policy paralysis.
The polls, which include seven-phase voting in UP, would begin on January 28 and end on March 3, with results coming a day later. Election Commission SY Quraishi announced single-phase poll in Goa (March 3), Manipur (January 28), Punjab and Uttarakhand (January 30) while UP would see polling on February 4, 8, 11, 15, 19, 23 and 28. Two states each are ruled by NDA and Congress while BSP commands UP.
The Saturday announcement ended the suspense over poll schedule on which ride the fortunes of embattled Congress. A favourable scoreline, minimum 3-2 with evidence of revival in its fallen fort of UP, would deliver a decisive blow to Anna Hazare-induced inaction at the Centre while`silencing BJP which is on the right side of the septuagenarian campaigner. It is a challenge for Rahul Gandhi who is leading the charge in UP. A successful outcome in UP willl canonize him as party's new mascot and will put him under pressure to lead the government: something which he is averse to.
Congress chief Sonia Gandhi spelt out the significance of the polls when she told party's poll mangers that Team Anna must be countered electorally.
The pollscape seems favourable for Congress, with BJP on the backfoot in Uttarakhand and in Punjab. In UP, party will be more than satisfied if it overtakes BJP's tally, thus besting the saffron challenger once again after the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. That will dispel the perception of slide, and help party keep in good stead for the 2014 battle.
The bar for the party is set low in UP; a good jump on its 2007 score of 22 seats which will make it indispensable for Samajwadi Party to form government. Such an outcome would earn Congress the support of 23-MP Samajwadi camp at the Centre, steeling the tottering UPA-2 from a whimsical Mamata Banerjee, while setting it on course for revival in UP.
It will not be easy though, given that Akali Dal have repeatedly shown the resilience like in 2003 assembly polls and, again, in 2009 Lok Sabha when they defied predictions of rout. The smaller states of Uttarakhand and Goa are difficult to predict though Congress has a clear edge here.
A failure, it goes without saying, would be disastrous, speeding up the downhill slide while reducing Manmohan Singh government into virtual lameduck with BJP on top. Worse, the succession plan for Rahul Gandhi in 2014 polls would be under a cloud.
UP-2012 would be the marquee battle which would test the future of heir-apparents Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav and the fate of towering backward class champions in Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati.
Election Commission's decision to advance the most-awaited battle by two months seems in keeping with ruling Congress's eagerness to tap the dip in perception about Mayawati over corruption and malgovernance. Early elections mean Mayawati will not be able to translate her majority in assembly into a larger presence for BSP in Rajya Sabha, and hope for Congress to add a couple to its tally in the Upper House.
Post-Babri, Congress appears on the margins of 'BSP vs SP' battle but is hopeful that Rahul's charge can pump its fortunes and lay the field it can work on to be serious claimant for 80 seats in 2014.
Wannabe Congress apart, UP is being watched for how Mulayam squares up against the dalit czarina who swept him aside on May 11, 2007, to notch a rare majority in the jammed state politics.
It is Yadav chieftain's last chance to win the state he strode after 1989 with the formidable Mandal blend of backwards and Muslims. Samajwadi GenNext Akhilesh is heading the 'kranti rath' with Mulayam still to take the field, clear indication of change of baton.
In the tight battle, Muslims could be the decider, SP's onetime pocketborough which deserted in 2009 polls to protest its tieup with onetime saffron mascot Kalyan Singh. While there are signs that Muslims could return to Samajwadi tent, Congress's full throttled entry with sops like job quota for the community threatens to play the spoiler. The rise of Muslim outfits like Peace Party is a new variable in the UP power matrix.
Mayawati starts with a solid base on paper but questions galore on how much of it remains intact after five years of questionable performance on fronts ranging from governance to corruption to social engineering. A slip here would test the resilience of the dalit leader who, having seen the apogee, would have persevere and regroup.
BJP, on the other hand, is hoping that it can raise its modest tally on the back of reaction to Muslim quota and help from delimitation. Its considerations for revival in state are same as Congress's - as launchpad for Lok Sabha polls.
Year 2012 has the potential to reshape the post-Babri landscape because a weakened SP and BSP would mean a resurgent Congress on the prowl to wrest back Muslims, dalits and uppercastes who fled in reaction to Ayodhya campaign.
The polls, which include seven-phase voting in UP, would begin on January 28 and end on March 3, with results coming a day later. Election Commission SY Quraishi announced single-phase poll in Goa (March 3), Manipur (January 28), Punjab and Uttarakhand (January 30) while UP would see polling on February 4, 8, 11, 15, 19, 23 and 28. Two states each are ruled by NDA and Congress while BSP commands UP.
The Saturday announcement ended the suspense over poll schedule on which ride the fortunes of embattled Congress. A favourable scoreline, minimum 3-2 with evidence of revival in its fallen fort of UP, would deliver a decisive blow to Anna Hazare-induced inaction at the Centre while`silencing BJP which is on the right side of the septuagenarian campaigner. It is a challenge for Rahul Gandhi who is leading the charge in UP. A successful outcome in UP willl canonize him as party's new mascot and will put him under pressure to lead the government: something which he is averse to.
Congress chief Sonia Gandhi spelt out the significance of the polls when she told party's poll mangers that Team Anna must be countered electorally.
The pollscape seems favourable for Congress, with BJP on the backfoot in Uttarakhand and in Punjab. In UP, party will be more than satisfied if it overtakes BJP's tally, thus besting the saffron challenger once again after the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. That will dispel the perception of slide, and help party keep in good stead for the 2014 battle.
The bar for the party is set low in UP; a good jump on its 2007 score of 22 seats which will make it indispensable for Samajwadi Party to form government. Such an outcome would earn Congress the support of 23-MP Samajwadi camp at the Centre, steeling the tottering UPA-2 from a whimsical Mamata Banerjee, while setting it on course for revival in UP.
It will not be easy though, given that Akali Dal have repeatedly shown the resilience like in 2003 assembly polls and, again, in 2009 Lok Sabha when they defied predictions of rout. The smaller states of Uttarakhand and Goa are difficult to predict though Congress has a clear edge here.
A failure, it goes without saying, would be disastrous, speeding up the downhill slide while reducing Manmohan Singh government into virtual lameduck with BJP on top. Worse, the succession plan for Rahul Gandhi in 2014 polls would be under a cloud.
UP-2012 would be the marquee battle which would test the future of heir-apparents Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav and the fate of towering backward class champions in Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati.
Election Commission's decision to advance the most-awaited battle by two months seems in keeping with ruling Congress's eagerness to tap the dip in perception about Mayawati over corruption and malgovernance. Early elections mean Mayawati will not be able to translate her majority in assembly into a larger presence for BSP in Rajya Sabha, and hope for Congress to add a couple to its tally in the Upper House.
Post-Babri, Congress appears on the margins of 'BSP vs SP' battle but is hopeful that Rahul's charge can pump its fortunes and lay the field it can work on to be serious claimant for 80 seats in 2014.
Wannabe Congress apart, UP is being watched for how Mulayam squares up against the dalit czarina who swept him aside on May 11, 2007, to notch a rare majority in the jammed state politics.
It is Yadav chieftain's last chance to win the state he strode after 1989 with the formidable Mandal blend of backwards and Muslims. Samajwadi GenNext Akhilesh is heading the 'kranti rath' with Mulayam still to take the field, clear indication of change of baton.
In the tight battle, Muslims could be the decider, SP's onetime pocketborough which deserted in 2009 polls to protest its tieup with onetime saffron mascot Kalyan Singh. While there are signs that Muslims could return to Samajwadi tent, Congress's full throttled entry with sops like job quota for the community threatens to play the spoiler. The rise of Muslim outfits like Peace Party is a new variable in the UP power matrix.
Mayawati starts with a solid base on paper but questions galore on how much of it remains intact after five years of questionable performance on fronts ranging from governance to corruption to social engineering. A slip here would test the resilience of the dalit leader who, having seen the apogee, would have persevere and regroup.
BJP, on the other hand, is hoping that it can raise its modest tally on the back of reaction to Muslim quota and help from delimitation. Its considerations for revival in state are same as Congress's - as launchpad for Lok Sabha polls.
Year 2012 has the potential to reshape the post-Babri landscape because a weakened SP and BSP would mean a resurgent Congress on the prowl to wrest back Muslims, dalits and uppercastes who fled in reaction to Ayodhya campaign.